The Average Carbon Dioxide Emitted per Kilometre of the Car Stock Registered Across the Local Authorities of the UK

Whilst promoting the adoption of Ultra Low Emission Vehicles such as Electric Vehicles is part of the long-term strategy to attain a zero carbon car fleet by 2050, there is no getting away from the fact that the vast majority of the current car stock is comprised on Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) propelled by fossil fuels. Indeed, ICEVs will likely remain the most popular variety of new car for the next decade. With this in mind, understanding the relative carbon dioxide intensity of local car fleets and how this metric is changing over time represents an important issue.

 All cars which have been sold in the European Union since 2001 have had to undergo a test procedure referred to as the New European Driving Cycling (NEDC). The NEDC measures the grams of carbon dioxide the car emits per kilometre travelled under test conditions (gCO2/km). The map inserted below charts the average gCO2/km for the cars registered across the local authorities of the UK in 2014. A significant range is present concerning this metric, with the London Borough of Kensington and Chelsea displaying the highest value with the cars registered in this area emitting on average 188.77 gCO2/km whilst the local authority of Slough has the lowest value with the cars registered in this area emitting on average 134.99 gCO2/km. Ultimately, what this map shows us is that the car stock of the UK is much cleaner and dirtier in places (with regards to gCO2/km). Understanding the spatial variation which is present can be useful in considering what local conditions are causing it and how to respond to it.

Electric Vehicle Registrations in 2014

If the United Kingdom is to achieve the ambitious targets set for reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases, which requires an 80% reduction in territorial emissions by 2050, the transport sector will likely need to undergo a complete decarbonisation process. If we assume that a mass modal shift to public and active transport is unlikely to occur, then a transition to zero emission vehicles to replace the current stock of cars represents a fundamental requirement to realising this objective.

This transition is currently being framed in terms of the mass adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs), which are expected to diffuse through the car fleet over the next 20 years. Currently, we are at the beginning of this diffusion process, with the number of EVs which are currently registered for use of UK roads being low in comparison to the overall size of the fleet. However, charting the early stage of the diffusion process might offer insights regarding what areas tend to be early adopters of clean technology and the degree to which the diffusion of EVs follows that of past advanced propulsion system technologies (such as Hybrid Electric Vehicles). This final issue could be of use when considering the likely indicators of the diffusion of future propulsion systems (such as Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles).

 The map below charts the rate of EV uptake across all of the local authorities of the UK. It notes the current level of EV registrations per 10,000 cars and clearly shows that certain areas are more advanced in their EV adoption than others.